Unconventional gas: potential energy market impacts in the European Union

In the interest of effective policymaking, this report seeks to clarify certain controversies and identify key gaps in the evidence-base relating to unconventional gas. The scope of this report is restricted to the economic impact of unconventional gas on energy markets. As such, it principally addresses such issues as the energy mix, energy prices, supplies, consumption, and trade flows. Whilst this study touches on coal bed methane and tight gas, its predominant focus is on shale gas, which the evidence at this time suggests will be the form of unconventional gas with the most growth potential in the short- to medium-term. This report considers the prospects for the indigenous production of shale gas within the EU-27 Member States. It evaluates the available evidence on resource size, extractive technology, resource access and market access. This report also considers the implications for the EU of large-scale unconventional gas production in other parts of the world. This acknowledges the fact that many changes in the dynamics of energy supply can only be understood in the broader global context. It also acknowledges that the EU is a major importer of energy, and that it is therefore heavily affected by developments in global energy markets that are largely out of its control.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

Best Practices and Methodological Guidelines for Conducting Gas Risk Assessments

The EC Regulation concerning measures to safeguard security of gas supply (EC/994/2010) requires member states to make a full assessment of the risks affecting the security of gas supply. According to Article 9, this risk assessment must: (a) use the infrastructure and supply standards (articles 6 and 8); (b) take into account all relevant national and regional circumstances; (c) run various disruption scenarios; (d) identify the interaction and correlation of risks with other Member States. (e) take into account the maximal interconnection capacity of each border entry and exit point. The objective of this report is to provide guidance and advice for performing risk assessments. It will do so by first providing a literature review, and then by proposing a basic structure for undertaking a gas security risk assessment, in accordance with best practices and standard procedures found in risk management.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

Pipe dreams; explaining the energy security policies of Poland, 1990-2007

This thesis seeks to explain Poland’s energy security policies towards Russia in the period from 1990-2007. It is inspired by the puzzle that Poland’s commitments to reduce its dependence on imported oil and gas from Russia have varied considerably during this period. Numerous large-scale projects to enhance energy security have been proposed, abandoned and revisited, all in the absence of a significant change to Poland’s level of dependence on Russia or its exposure to supply risks. This puzzle poses a challenge to conventional approaches to energy security, which tend to explain policies as a function of ‘material’ shifts in the price, supply or demand for fossil fuels. Though these factors are undoubtedly important it is argued that, in the case of Poland, energy security is more affected by domestic decision-making processes than by such material shifts. In particular, the degree and form of intervention in the energy sector by the political executive in Poland is highlighted as a key factor explaining energy security policy output. These interventions in Poland are classified and distinguished according to three types of ‘policy network’ – statist, corporatist and liberal, each of which represented a different outlook on the optimal means for ensuring energy security. These policy networks were embedded within different governments, and their preferences fashioned Poland’s responses to energy security challenges occurring under similar material conditions

A systemic approach to assessing energy security in a low-carbon EU energy system

Until now, the complex relationship between energy security and climate change has been addressed using a partial understanding of security, one that is based on simplified indicators such as import dependence or fuel mix diversity. As a consequence, the synergies and trade-offs between climate change and energy security policies have not been systematically explored according to a wider understanding of the latter concept. The purpose of this article is to resolve the resulting knowledge gap by proposing a theoretical approach to energy security that is consistent with its multi-dimensional nature, taking into account the whole energy supply chain. Five key 'systemic' properties of energy security will be identified – namely, stability, flexibility, adequacy, resilience and robustness. The paper proposes a novel framework to assess energy security and uses this framework to develop a comprehensive approach to the interactions between climate change policies and energy security. The impact of a low-carbon scenario on one of these five properties (long-term robustness) will be assessed using a complex multi-regional energy system model. The results demonstrate how this scenario induces structural changes along the whole energy supply chain, revealing dynamic vulnerabilities and trade-offs that are not adequately accounted for by existing indicator-based assessments. Finally, the paper provides solid foundations for further analysis of these trade-offs using more detailed sectorial models.JRC.F.3-Energy Security, Systems and Marke

Pipe dreams : explaining the energy security policies of Poland, 1990-2007

This thesis seeks to explain Poland’s energy security policies towards Russia in the period from 1990-2007. It is inspired by the puzzle that Poland’s commitments to reduce its dependence on imported oil and gas from Russia have varied considerably during this period. Numerous large-scale projects to enhance energy security have been proposed, abandoned and revisited, all in the absence of a significant change to Poland’s level of dependence on Russia or its exposure to supply risks. This puzzle poses a challenge to conventional approaches to energy security, which tend to explain policies as a function of ‘material’ shifts in the price, supply or demand for fossil fuels. Though these factors are undoubtedly important it is argued that, in the case of Poland, energy security is more affected by domestic decision-making processes than by such material shifts. In particular, the degree and form of intervention in the energy sector by the political executive in Poland is highlighted as a key factor explaining energy security policy output. These interventions in Poland are classified and distinguished according to three types of ‘policy network’ – statist, corporatist and liberal, each of which represented a different outlook on the optimal means for ensuring energy security. These policy networks were embedded within different governments, and their preferences fashioned Poland’s responses to energy security challenges occurring under similar material conditions.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Exploring the uncertainty around potential shale gas development - A global energy system analysis based on TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model)

This paper aims to quantitatively explore the uncertainty around the global potential of shale gas development and its possible impacts, using a multi-regional energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). Starting from the premise that shale gas resource size and production cost are two key preconditions for its development, our scenario analysis reveals the way these and other variables interact with the global energy system, impacting on the regional distribution of gas production, interregional gas trade, demand and prices. The analysis shows how the reciprocal effects of substitutions on both the supply and demand-side play an important role in constraining or enabling the penetration of shale gas into the energy mix. Moreover, we systematically demonstrate that the global potential for shale gas development is contingent on a large number of intervening variables that manifest themselves in different ways across regionally-distinct energy systems. A simple theoretical model is derived from the results of the scenario analysis. Its purpose is to simplify and explain the complex behaviour of the system, by illustrating the chain of actions and feedbacks induced by different shale gas economics, their magnitude, their relative importance, and the necessary conditions for the global potential to be realised.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

A review of national gas emergency plans in the European Union

The purpose of this paper is to document and review existing national gas emergency plans in the European Union, following the guidelines and requirements set out by the EU's Regulation 994/2010 concerning measures to safeguard security of gas supply. Despite the great deal of attention paid to questions of natural gas security in an increasingly import-dependent European Union, the contingency plans of most of its member states have not been widely published or scrutinized. By reviewing TSO network codes and national legal and regulatory acts, this paper teases out the key similarities and differences between member states' emergency planning frameworks, tools and methods. A gas emergency operational template is subsequently proposed that conforms to EU legislation. This is followed by a discussion of emergency planning in the context of regional cooperation and the liberalizing European gas market. The paper concludes by advocating gas emergency measures which are proportionate to the crisis level, sensitive to the gas demand profile, aware of the regional context, inconsequential to normal market operation, transparent and non-discriminatory during implementation and verifiable during emergencies as well as under normal conditions.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

International Handbook of Energy Security Part II Chapter 3 : Framing new threats: the internal security of gas and electricity networks in the European Union

This chapter deals with the internal security of the European Union’s gas and electricity grids, laying particular emphasis on future challenges to network stability arising from the liberalisation of the internal market for natural gas, the integration of renewable energy sources in the electricity network and the cyber-security challenges to interconnected energy infrastructures.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

Preventive Action Plan and Emergency Plan Good Practices: A Review of EU Member State natural gas preventive action and emergency plans

The aims of this document are to provide guidance in the development of a Preventive Action Plan and a collection of best available practices to provide assistance in the design of Emergency Plans, in line with EU Regulation 994/2010 concerning measures to safeguard natural gas supply.JRC.F.3-Energy securit